Two points of Coca-Cola's 7% revenue growth came from bottlers stocking up

Coca-Cola's organic revenue grew 7% in the third quarter of 2026, and most of that came from selling more drinks rather than charging more for them. Not all of the extra volume reached shoppers, though. The company sold concentrate to its bottlers 2 points faster than the system sold finished drinks, which it put down to the timing of shipments. In July management had guided to the reverse: shipments lagging drinks sold by a point.

The distinction matters because of how the business is built. Coca-Cola sells concentrate to its bottling partners, which use it in the finished drinks they sell. Its revenue follows those concentrate sales. Unit case volume counts what the whole system, the company and its bottlers together, sells to customers and consumers, so it is the better measure of demand. When bottlers build stock, concentrate sales run ahead; when they draw it down, they fall behind. Last quarter unit cases grew 5% while concentrate sales grew 7%.

Part of this looks like catching up. In the quarter before, concentrate sales trailed unit cases by a point. Management still expects shipments to slightly trail volume for the whole year, which means the gap has to reverse, and the chief financial officer, John Murphy, said the company now expects "slight destocking in the fourth quarter". The fourth quarter also has six fewer days than a year earlier, which lowers reported revenue but not unit cases, measured per selling day.

The make-up of growth has changed as well. A year earlier organic growth came from pricing and favourable mix, with little help from volume. Last quarter pricing still rose, but an unfavourable mix of countries and products, along with the timing of investments, took most of it back, leaving price/mix at 1%. Murphy said that, setting aside Topo Chico and the timing of investments, "our price/mix for the year is pretty much within the band that we would look to deliver". That is his adjustment, not a reported figure.

Earnings guidance has moved further than revenue guidance. The company now guides comparable earnings per share to grow at least 11% this year, against 7% to 8% in February, while the organic revenue guide has edged up only slightly. The currency tailwind built into the earnings guide has not changed, so exchange rates do not explain the change.

The extra earnings come from below the revenue line. Murphy said the comparable operating margin widened through underlying expansion, currency and the earlier sale of the Nigerian bottling business. The company trimmed its underlying tax rate guide, and Murphy said that reflects benefits he does not expect to repeat. Pre-tax income also grew faster than operating income, with interest expense lower than a year earlier.

That leaves a modest bar for the last quarter of the year. Calculated from the three reported quarters and the rounded base for last year that management uses, the guide floor implies fourth-quarter comparable earnings per share of about $0.59, against $0.58 a year earlier. The base is rounded and the guide is a floor, so the figure is approximate. The fourth quarter carries the destocking, the shorter calendar and, if it closes as assumed, the sale of Coca-Cola Beverages Africa, which Murphy expects to cut that quarter's comparable earnings per share by 3 points.

The same sale shapes 2027. The company's first considerations for next year include a headwind of about 8% to comparable net revenues and about 2% to comparable earnings per share from divestitures, which management said comes with better margins and returns. Closing still needs regulatory approval, and full guidance is due in February. Until then, the cleaner reading of demand is the 5% rise in unit cases; the shipments on top of it belong to bottlers' stockrooms, and the company expects them to unwind before the year ends.