Can Fin Homes held its ₹13,000 crore disbursement guide; the second half now has to deliver 61% more

Impact 4/5 · Guidance · Negative

Can Fin Homes holds ₹13,000 cr FY27 disbursement guide after a ₹625 cr shortfall

Management kept full-year disbursement guidance at ₹13,000 crore after a September 2026 quarter of ₹2,375 crore, net of about ₹29 crore of cancellations. On 20 July 2026 it had planned ₹3,000 crore for the quarter, probably before the new rule netting off cancellations, so the miss was ₹625 crore, or 20.8%, by our arithmetic, of which about ₹29 crore may be the rule. With ₹4,984 crore done in the first half (management says it began netting this quarter, so June's figure is probably not net), the second half needs ₹8,016 crore, 61% more. In July management had also floated ₹13,200-13,400 crore as possible.

“For the full year, we continue to have the same guidance of INR 13,000 crores in terms of disbursement.”— Suresh Iyer, MD and CEO

Impact 4/5 · Risk · Negative

Can Fin Homes' last 98 branches, 93 of them older, moved to a new loan system 1 Oct 2026

The 93 older branches in the last batch, which did ₹1,363 crore, or 57%, of the September 2026 quarter's gross disbursement by our arithmetic (a share lifted by the disruption at the other branches; they averaged about half in the quarter before), moved to the new loan system on 1 October 2026 with five newly opened branches. Management said a branch's disbursement fell about 70% to 75% in its go-live month, then recovered to roughly 80-90% of the old level the next month. On 20 July 2026, twelve days into a five-branch pilot, the company had said it saw no major business impact.

“the month in which the implementation has happened, the disbursements they have dropped in that particular branches by about 70% to 75%”— Suresh Iyer, MD and CEO

Impact 4/5 · Guidance · Mixed

Can Fin Homes calls FY27 loan-book growth guide unchanged, now 13-14%; July said 14%

Management called FY27 AUM growth guidance unchanged but worded it as 13% to 14%, closer to 14%; on 20 July 2026 it said a single 14%. First-half run-off was ₹3,652 crore against ₹7,000 crore guided for the year, an annualised ₹7,304 crore by our arithmetic, though last quarter's ₹1,795 crore was below the ₹1,857 crore of the quarter before. In FY26 the company guided 13-15% growth on 24 April 2025, 12-13% from 21 July 2025, cut that to 11-12% on 20 January 2026 and ended at 10.44%.

“we pulled the same guidance for AUM of 13%, 14%, closer to 14% in terms of our AUM growth for the year.”— Suresh Iyer, MD and CEO

Impact 3/5 · Margin · Mixed

Can Fin Homes passes on 10 bps of a 25 bps rate rise; funding-cost effect put at 12-13 bps

After the 25 basis point repo rise on 7 October 2026, Can Fin Homes announced a 10 basis point rise in housing-loan rates (the CEO dated it 8 October; new borrowers pay it from 12 October and existing ones as their loans reset, about a third each on 1 November, 1 December and 1 January), while putting the eventual effect on its funding cost at 12-13 basis points. Management held FY27 spread guidance of 2.75% and net interest margin guidance of 3.75%. By our rough arithmetic, ignoring timing, a 2-3 basis point gap on ₹39,078 crore of borrowings is about ₹8-12 crore a year.

“we've already passed on effective 8th of October, 10 basis points for our housing customers.”— Suresh Iyer, MD and CEO

Impact 3/5 · Guidance · Mixed

Can Fin Homes eyes ₹16,000 cr FY28 disbursement; sales team near 90 against 150 targeted

Asked about FY28, management said it is internally looking at ₹16,000 crore of disbursement, by our arithmetic 23% above ₹13,000 crore, and AUM growth of 15% to 15.5%, assuming ₹8,500 crore of run-off. The sales team brought in ₹560 crore in the first half from about 90 people, against a year's target of ₹1,500-1,600 crore with the team at 150. By our arithmetic the second half needs ₹940-1,040 crore, 1.7-1.9 times the first.